Mental models are always useful to help navigate uncertain worlds like technology innovation and investment.
Here is a go-to model that I use. It is based on studying the history 0f technology revolutions and is summarised brilliantly here http://avc.com/2015/02/the-carlota-perez-framework/
We are in the ‘installation’ phase in crypto. If you are a believer in history then know it will almost certainly crash. Then enter a ‘golden age’.
The only thing that you can never predict is timing.